With similar results to the Climate Scoreboard, the Climate Action Tracker (a project of Climate Analytics and EcoFys) estimates the current climate deal to be headed for 3.5°C by 2100.
Great to see more good analysis of the COP15 long term results!
Directly from Climate Action Tracker:
Thermometer shows the global temperature increase with an uncertainty range according to our interpretation of the countries’ pledges.
A sobering new assessment by the “Climate Action Tracker” of the emission commitments and pledges put forward by industrialized and developing countries for the Copenhagen climate negotiations shows that the world is headed for a global warming of well over 3°C by 2100. Carbon dioxide concentrations are projected to be over 650 ppm, with total GHG concentrations close to 800 ppm CO2 equivalent. From these numbers, there is at least a one in four chance of exceeding a warming of 4°C. This “Climate Action Tracker” is an independent science-based assessment, which tracks the emission commitments and actions of countries. The website provides an up-to-date assessment of individual national pledges to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions.
For further information go to Climate Action Tracker.