On March 23, 2021, Eric Roston of Bloomberg Green published a newsletter piece exploring the impact of different climate solutions using the En-ROADS simulator from Climate Interactive and MIT Sloan’s Sustainability Initiative – “What if the Perfect Climate Fix Can’t Arrive in Time?” For those with a Bloomberg subscription, the full article is here. Below you will find a video with detailed explanations of the settings used in the article and the model dynamics at play.
The meaning and math behind the “7.5%” number quoted in the newsletter is here: our modeling suggests that immediate discovery and commercialization of a new, zero-carbon electricity source could avoid the emission of 68 gigatons of CO2 by 2050 (notice the gap in Net Cumulative CO2 Emissions in 2050). A scenario that achieves net-zero emissions by 2050 such as this will avoid 908 gigatons of CO2 by 2050 (the best graph to view the value is here – observe the gap in 2050, when 3617 – 2709 = 908). And then 68/908 = 7.5%.
For additional information, please explore these resources:
- More background on the En-ROADS simulator.
- The En-ROADS User Guide for background on the dynamics of En-ROADS, tips for using the simulator, general descriptions, real-world examples, slider settings, and model structure notes for the different sliders in En-ROADS.
- The En-ROADS Reference Guide for extensive model details, including data sources, model assumptions, dynamics, and structure.
- Our confidence-building webinar on testing and comparison to the suite of integrated assessment models.
- Read a more detailed explanation on afforestation in En-ROADS.
- A video on testing carbon pricing in En-ROADS.